What, you thought you were rid of me? HAHAH.. You idiot, I'm not going anywhere. I've seen a lot of discourse out there about UFAs and RFAs and this guy vs. that guy, some of decent, a lot of it nonsense.
So I thought I'd put together a pucker list of UFAs, RFAs and trade targets that we like. I mention Quinn below, he would obviously be great to have, but A) I have no confidence Fitz can pull that off and B) I think we have another year to wait for that. I also want to note that I am using AFP Analytics contract projections as a guide for UFAs and RFAs, with some rounding and changes that I explain. XG numbers are from Moneypuck and speed numbers are NHL Edge.
This follows along with my original blog that clearly lays out where we stand for next season:
Since you all read it and took notes, here are the highlights:
10 Forwards under contract from last season + Gritsuyk: $50,675,000
5 Defenseman under contract: $25,900,000
2 Goalies under contract: $4,937,500
TOTAL UNDER CONTRACT: $81,512,500
The Cap this offseason is $95,500,000 which leaves us $13,062,500.
Not bad right? We can make some shit work with that. Whoa, not so fast kiddo, we have $1,558,937 in bonus overages that will get applied to the 25-26 cap.
So, that means we have $11,503,563 in cap space assuming it does.
Luke Extension
Next, we have a pretty big RFA extension needed for Luke, and there are two options for him - a bridge deal and long term deal. And no, he is not eligible to be offer-sheeted, so if anyone from another fan base says that, ridicule them into oblivion for being dumb. There is a pretty big gap in AAV between a bridge deal and long term extension, and apologies if you are aware but the reason is the team would be "buying" UFA years, meaning they are buying future years of flexibility and possibly higher salary. I don't see a world where Luke gets a bridge deal. So, we are looking at the longer term, larger contract as Luke looks everything the part of a future stud #1 defenseman, contrary to the opinion of the people who don't know what they are watching. Looking at some comparables in Brock Faber and Jake Sanderson, Luke's deal is likely to land in the low/mid $8 million range. AFP has him at 6 years, $8.38 million, I don't get the 6 years, so we are going with full term and rounding to 8 years at $8,400,000 for Lukey boy.
Glass re-sign
I do think we should keep Glass as the 4C. He is an RFA, fits our age profile, is great in the dot and has some marginal 30-40 pt offensive upside with great defensive metrics and size. He is also in the 80th percentile for speed, so gets as close as possible to replicating what we lost in Mcgoingtojail. AFP has him at 3 years for $2.9 million which I don't see any reason to question.
So that leaves us here with $203,563 in available space:
XX - Nico - Timo
Palat - Jack - Bratt
Gritsuyk - Haula - Mercer
Cotter - Glass - Noesen
MacDermid
Luke - Pesce
Dillon - Dougie
Siegs - Kovacevic*
The forward group needs some work and banking on bounce backs from some guys is a fool's errand. We are cleaning out some of the expiring dead weight which is a good thing, but as I mention below, we need to see upgrades over Palat and Haula, and a new top line wing. Further, I don't think we should automatically pencil in Gritsyuk with one of the top two lines yet, but a lot of that will shake out in camp and no one knows what the actual intention is - but we do absolutely need him to be a contributor. Maybe that "top line wing" is an upper middle six guy with upside that is interchangeable with Grtis. Gritz? What are we going with nickname-wise here? Anyway:
XX - Nico - Timo
XX - Jack - Bratt
Grits - XX - Mercer
Cotter - Glass - Noesen
The D corps, when fully healthy early in the year, was one of the best in the league. I am particularly curious what happens on the right side of the D. What I THINK SHOULD happen is Dougie gets moved for upper middle six guy (Palat or Haula's spots, see above) and Nemec gets his confirmed full time spot. The other wrinkle here, that we don't really have a timeline on, is how long Kovacervic will miss at the beginning of the year. Do they keep Dougie and Nemec and figure it out when Johnny comes back? Does Casey have the chops to fill that time if Dougie moves on? Is there a fill-in UFA/other AHL lifer that gets those minutes? Does Kovacevic look right when he's back and rotate or maybe he is the 7th D? Is Nemec a trade piece, or is Casey now the trade piece? We really need the most help up front, so I think we roll:
Luke - Pesce
Siegs - Casey/Kovacevic
Dillon - Nemec
To make room for any UFAs or RFAs, money needs to go out and the top 5 candidates for that are Palat, Haula, Dougie, MacDermid, and Mercer. None of this is particularly unique thinking, but I can see a world where any combination of them stay or go. Attach assets if need be, we should not give a shit about the draft for the next 2 years. Of the 5, Mercer and Dougie have tradeable value for real pieces.
UFAs
So, on to guys I think we should target. One caveat though - I am concerned about overpays in the '25 UFA marketplace, there are limited options and the overall group is light on good players. With the cap going up it is RIPE for brutal contracts getting handed out. But our window is now for 4-5 years, so we need to maximize it and worry about dumping poorly aging contracts later. You'll notice Mitch Marner isn't here, that is a non-starter for me for a variety of reasons. Further, I tried to focus on realistic 3C and top line wing options. There are only 2 bottom of the lineup guys I'd even give a sniff to in FA.
Sam Bennet, 29, C, L, 6'1", 194
24/25 Reg. Season: 76 GP, 25G, 26A, 51P (7 PPG, 11 PPA)
24/25 Reg. Season xGF: 61.1%
24/25 Reg. Season P/60: 2.31
24/25 Playoff xGF: 62.4%
Speed: 56th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 6 x $6.4MM
Big, mean, plays on the edge with some skill. Stylistically the type of guy we should be targeting, but this guy is going to get widly overpaid (upwards of $10MM) and seems like the exact type of contract I mentioned above. He's great in theory, would be a superb netfront guy on our PP1 and could be the grit guy we need at 3C, or move Jack to the wing and have him be the 2C. The concern is how does this contract age for a 20-ish goal scorer who sucks defensively? I don't see it happening, but if it can, great, we need that meanness, but would ALSO need to bring in more scoring and a massive deal for him limits deals for others.
Nikolaj Ehlers, 29, LW, L, 6'0", 172
24/25 Reg. Season: 69 GP, 24G, 39A, 63P (6 PPG, 22 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 60%
24/25 P/60: 3.45
24/25 Playoff xGF: 69.2%
Speed: 95th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 6 x $8.1MM
High end skill guy, and one of the fastest players in the league. He would likely thrive alongside any combo of the top four we have in place. However, his ice time and deployment (15:30ish per game) has been oddly low for a guy with his skillset which is a bit of a red flag to me about coachability and defensive play. He is also on the lighter side, and not entirely sure we need another slight-build forward and no idea where he would be deployed on the Power Play with the flanks and bumper taken (1/3 of his points last season were on the PP). Further, he has some injury history, having played less than 70 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons like Bennett, is likely to get overpaid for the actual production he could bring. Definitely worth a look, and we would need to add some meanness in another player if we do bring him in.
Brad Marchand, 37, RW, L, 5'9" 180 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 23G, 28A, 51P (5PPG, 2PPA)
24/25 xGF: 56.4%
24/25 P/60: 2.35
24/25 Playoff xGF: 59.3%
Speed: 59th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 2 x $5MM
I thought this guy was washed, but turns out he needed to get bumped down the lineup a little and Boston was trash. After an injury stint he has been pretty effective in Florida and still seems to have some gas in the tank. He has the type of attitude we need more of (see Bennet above) and would be an immediate culture enhancement while contributing. Deployment is another story, as he has been on a wildly effective 3rd line for FLA and that is where he should land with us, but rekindling or re-creating that kind of chemistry is difficult to manufacture. I would absolutely take a chance on him for a middle-6/PP2 add for 2-3 years - basically an upgrade over Palat.
Claude Giroux, 37, RW/C, R, 5'11" 188 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 15G, 35A, 50P (4 PPG, 18 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 47.7%
24/25 P/60: 2.03
24/25 Playoff xGF: 44.4%
Speed: 64th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 2 x $5MM
I could almost write the same exact paragraph word for word for Giroux that I wrote about Marchand. He is aging very well, and in a 3rd line/PP2 role he could be a force. He also has the attitude and presence we need with a little less fanfare than Marchand. He is a fantastic distributor of the puck, has good positional versatility and could really be a model for Mercer (should Mercer still be around). I absolutely would for the right price and term, 5MM might be a bit much and no longer than 2 years.
Matt Duchene, 34, C, L, 5'11" 212
24/25 Reg. Season: 30G, 52A, 82P (8 PPG, 27 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 57.3%
24/25 P/60: 3.5
24/25 Playoff xGF: 59.3%
Speed: Below 50th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 3 x $7.2MM
Hey, without looking guess who led Dallas in scoring this year? Trick question, It was 34 year old Matt Duchene. Honestly, I hadn't watched much of him until this playoff run and have been very impressed. His production hasn't been elite, but that's not what I'm looking for here - this is strong veteran voice, plays a great two way/ dual threat game and could be an incredible 3C with upside. After getting cast aside by Nashville, he has re-invigorated himself in Dallas and is playing the best hockey of his career. He's also an absolute unit and tough to knock off the puck. He may not be as much of a loudmouth on the ice, but it's clear he is well respected. I don't see why Dallas wouldn't re-up him, but color me intrigued.
Mikail Granlund, 33, C, L 5'10" 185 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season (SJ/DAL): 22G, 44 A, 66P (5 PPG, 19 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 46.1%
24/25 P/60: 2.5
24/25 Playoff xGF: 51.8%
Speed: Below 50th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 2 x $4.98MM
There is something about Finns, they all seem to have a dawg in them and he has seamlessly fit in with Dallas and their Finnish connection. Is that too important, especially if we move on from Haula? He has been electric for Dallas in these playoffs, and has been a snipe show all playoffs. And 3C/2C candidate at a good contract projection, another guy I am intrigued by. His playoff performance is the main driver of my interest here, as he seems to elevate his game, however that is also PP driven, and not sure where he would fit in.
Brock Boeser, 28, R, RW/LW, 6'1" 208 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 25G, 25A, 50P (9 PPG, 20 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 57%
24/25 P/60: 2.2
24/25 Playoff xGF: N/A
Speed: Below 50th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 6 x $8.45MM
This feels like an overpay/bad contract candidate and trying to thread a needle too narrowly. The intention would be to get that scoring winger we lost in Toffoli, but Brock is basically the same guy. Nose for the net, good shooter, but concrete boots and pretty rough defensively and needs to hitch his wagon to a star center. His production dipped significantly YOY with Petterson falling off and Miller being disgruntled. Heavy PP dependence too, and where does he play there? He is the left flank trigger guy, and that is where Jack is most comfortable. He's just not a well-rounded player, and we have been burned by trying to find that perfect fit before. We need more versatility and for 8MM+ I DO NOT think this is a good move. Plus, he's likely going home to Minny.
Connor Brown, 31, R, RW, 6'0" 184
24/25 Reg. Season: 13G, 17A, 30P (no PP)
24/25 xGF: 47.8%
24/25 P/60: 1.6
24/25 Playoff xGF: 44.4%
Speed: 66th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 3 x $2.9MM
The only bottom 6 guy I have on this list, he is just a guy who I notice a lot of during the playoffs. He always seems to score monster goals, and is a stud on the PK and a SH threat every time he's out there. A menace and dawg with capital M and D, I love watching him play - just very straight lines, knows his role and excels at it.
Daniel Sprong, 28, R, RW 6'0" 195
24/25 Reg. Season (SEA/VAN/NJ): 2G, 3A, 5P (1 PPG)
24/25 xGF: 51.2%
24/25 P/60: 1.15
24/25 Playoff xGF: N/A
Speed: Below 50th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 1 x 925k
What a weird year and career for this guy. Seems to blow himself out of every locker room and has never put it together save for a 20+ goal season a couple years ago in Seattle. The only returning guy I'd consider, but he seems like a break glass in case of emergency option and a PTO at best. Said all the right things, and played the right way - on a buryable deal? hmmm.
RFAs (offer sheets)
Fitz has indicated that RFA offer sheets are potentially going to be a thing they will look at using more. The prevailing sentiment was they were a bit taboo and were prime for "payback" in some way shape or form, and we were largely gaslit by big GM to believe the compensation was astronomical. Now that the cap is about to explode, the window to exploit cap strapped teams is closing, so this might be all for funsies and nonsense that won't happen. Further, the compensation varies by the amount of money offered, so there are guys in lower tiers that could get offer-sheeted that wouldn't cost much, and I think up to about $4.5MM is relatively painless.
Offer Sheet tiers can be found in the puckpedia link below, the Devils have the asserts to play up and down in this sandbox.
https://puckpedia.com/offer-sheet-tracker
First time RFAs have both a bridge and long term contract projections, guys coming off of bridge deals have longer term options only.
Matthew Knies 22, L, LW, 6'3: 227 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 29 G, 29A ,58P (5 PPG, 10 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 54.5%
24/25 P/60: 2.4
24/25 Playoff xGF: 48.6%
Speed: 89th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 7x $7.2MM / 2 x $4.2MM
He's likely not going anywhere but a girl can dream. Developing into one of these unicorn-y power forwards but he has indicated he really doesn't want to leave Toronto. It's him or Marner for them, and it seems Marner is on his way out.
JJ Peterka, 23, L, RW, 6'0" 189 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 27G, 41A, 68P (6 PPG, 12 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 55.5%
24/25 P/60: 2.9
24/25 Playoff xGF: N/A
Speed: 56th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 7 x $7.9MM / 2 x $4.6MM
Evolving into a solid high 20s goal scorer with more upside. Buffalo has money, but also has a long and storied history of letting young talent get away like fucking idiots. They should not let this happen, but he could be GREAT fit.
Gabe Vilardi, 25, R, C/RW, 6'3" 216 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 27G, 34A, 61P (12 PPG, 13 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 65.6%
24/25 P/60: 2.8
24/25 Playoff xGF: 58%
Speed: Below 50th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 4 x $6.8MM
Another guy who I don't see going anywhere, he was a piece in the PLD trade that has evolved into a versatile offensive threat. Jets have the cash to keep him and Ehlers, and not sure why they would let him go. HOWEVER, big, right shot, tough bastard and on an upward offensive trajectory with positional versatility.
Morgan Geekie, 26, C, R, 6'3" 208 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 33G, 24A, 57P (4 PPG, 5 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 55.9%
24/25 P/60: 2.6
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: 84th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 4 x $6.6MM
One of the few bright spots in a brutal season for Boston. They would be absolutel fucking idiots to let him go: a big, strong, fast, right-shot center that is 26? he exploded for 33 goals, and fits the exact mold of a perfect guy for a 3C spot for us that has 2C upside. Not overly PP dependent. WOULD.
Mason McTavish, 22, C, L 6'1" 219 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 22G, 30A, 52P (6 PPG, 6PPA)
24/25 xGF: 53.9%
24/25 P/60: 2.43
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: Below 50th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 6 x $6.77MM / 3 x $3.98MM
Another "why the hell would they let this guy go" guy, he is turning into a future captain two way force and unicorn-lite. led the team in goal scoring, and if they want to stay on their upward trajectory Anaheim should keep him and has the money to do it.
Ryan McLoed, 23, L, C, 6'3" 188 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 20G, 33A, 53P (0 PPG, 2PPA)
24/25 xGF:
24/25 P/60: 2.39
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: 82nd percentile
AFP Contract projection: 3 x $4.85MM
Jumpscare at the name, but he is not his brother. Just plays a lot like him and see above about Buffalo being dumb. This kid could fit in wonderfully as a 3C and grow with our group. Another very viable option. It's so funny how Bufflao has like 5 guys I would take, but they are so so bad. No idea why, guess we'll never know.
Marco Rossi, 23, L, C/W, 5'9" 182 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 24G, 36A, 60P (7 PPG, 9 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 59.7%
24/25 P/60: 2.41
24/25 Playoff xGF%: 60%
Speed: 75th percentile
AFP Contract projection: 7 x $7.4MM / 2 x $4.55MM
Correcting the Holtz draft would be an annoying side story, but after a struggle with long covid and myocarditis, Rossi emerged as a real offensive threat he was projected to be, plays a pest-ish type of a game a la Marchand and gets to the interior well with a good shot. Guerin has been oddly non-committal about him, and his deployment has largely been 3rd/4th line. If Minny throws the bag at Kaprizov and brings in Boeser, Fitz could have an opportunity to squeeze them. Might be our best option to give it a shot.
Trades
One thing I will give Fitz credit for is he seems to do pretty well with off season trades. Based on where our cap sits and the need to move money out, he NEEDS to make some moves with 2-3 trades. We have a position of strength with a deep blue line, especially on the right side which tends to be more coveted. We also have a ton of draft picks/futures to throw in the mix as well, and as mentioned above I do not give a fuck about the next two drafts. Dougie and Mercer have value, and Palat/Haula may need to be sold off with sweetners. Nemec will be asked about a lot (don't want to see that) and Casey could be moved as well (not ideal either). Below are the guys I think we should be targeting in trades, mostly scoring wingers, a couple of center options... and one defenseman that I haven't heard one thing about, he's pretty good you should look into him:
Quinn Hughes, 25, D, L, 5'10" 180 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 16G, 70A, 86P (4PPG, 35PPA)
24/25 xGF: 61.1%
24/25 P/60: 2.6
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: 99th percentile
Contract status: 2 years x $7.85MM
Just kidding, you've heard of him. He's pretty good - word on the street is he won some "best defenseman award" or something like that. If Vancouver is selling Quinn, they are blowing it up and Nemec is probably the centerpiece here. In practice, my only concern (which is a small one) is where does he play? We have Dillon, Siegs and Luke on the left side, so does someone move over? Does DIllon become the 7th D? Playing your offside is not an easy transition. We are also about to give Luke a big deal, whose production will be cut with PP2 time, are we ok with that? All that nonsense aside, when you can add a Norris winner who makes less than $8MM, you do what you can to do it and sort the details later.
Jared McCann, 29, C/LW, 6'1" 191 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 22G, 39A, 61P (4 PPG, 12 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 50.6%
24/25 P/60: 2.6
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: 53rd percentile
Contract status: 2 years x $5MM
I had him on my list at the deadline, and would be such a great fit - we need to find a way to snag McCann. Great contract, great age, scorer, plays a strong game and has positional versatility. There is very little to dislike about him. Seattle stinks and is in purgatory and needs to tear it down to the studs and build around Wright, Beniers, Montour, and Kakko.
Pavel Dorofeyev, LW/RW, L, 6'1" 194 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 35 G, 17A, 52P (13 PPG, 4 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 64.1Z%
24/25 P/60: 2.3
24/25 Playoff xGF%: 48.2%
Speed: 78th percentile
Contract status: 1 year x $1.835MM
Who, you might ask? Hilarious stat line, and the reason I'd approach with caution. Heavy dependence on PP for production and that was on an elite PP1 unit on Vegas. But the kid can finish, and for the price of $1.8MM on his current ELC it is worth a flier and we would control his RFA rights next season. He's also got good size and is a dawg on the puck. Vegas is about to hit some cap trouble if they want to stay relevant and will need to move some pieces out. While $1.8MM isn't a lot, he is a guy that has come up as a target to be moved. Color me intrigued.
Alex Tuch, 29, R, RW, 6'4" 219 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 36G, 31A, 67P (2 PPG, 8 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 50.8%
24/25 P/60: 2.55
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: 65th percentile
Contract status: 1 year x $4.75MM
Another perfect fit, and we are light on right shot guys. Size, tenacity, decent speed, a mean streak and goal scoring touch. I really would love to see this happen and an absolute bargain for 1 year.
Rickard Rakell, 32, R, RW, 6'1" 191 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 35G, 35A, 70P (9 PPG, 9 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 56.3%
24/25 P/60: 2.69
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: Below 50th percentile
Contract status: 3 years x $5MM
Every time I watched Rakell play, I got more and more impressed. Good size, more physical than one would expect and an absolute sniper. Age is the only concern at 3 more years, but could work well in a top 6 role.
Ryan O'Reilly, 34, L, C, 6'1" 209 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 21G, 32A, 53P (9 PPG, 8PPA)
24/25 xGF: 51.6%
24/25 P/60: 2.12
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: 60th percentile
Contract status: 2 years x $4.5MM
I've been talking about O'Reilly since mid January, he just seems like the prototype that we need for the 3C role and can really take some pressure off Nico. Lengthens the lineup with some scoring pop in the bottom six and a wily vet who hasn't slowed down at all on a great contract. Will that little edgelord Trotz send him to NJ and not try to extort Fitz?
Dylan Larkin, 28, L, C, 6'1" 199 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 30G, 40A, 70P (13 PPG, 14 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 56.9%
24/25 P/60: 2.55
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: 76th percentile
Contract status: 4 years x $8.7MM
This is a bit crazy, he is their captain and clear leader. But he and Yzerman took some shots at each other in dueling pressers after the season and that made me wonder if there is a world where Stevie Y punts on him for something else. No idea what a package would be, but it's worth a phone call.
Eeli Tolvanen, 26, L, W, 5'10" 182 lbs
24/25 Reg. Season: 23G, 12A, 35P (2 PPG, 3 PPA)
24/25 xGF: 46.1%
24/25 P/60: 1.8
24/25 Playoff xGF%: N/A
Speed: Below 50th percentile
Contract status: 1 year $3.475MM
a 5'10" guy who isn't heavy? Well this maniac had 237 hits last year, and is just a menace on the puck. Drafted as a scorer in Nashville and given up on there, he re-found his game in Seattle and I see a lot of upside. He could be a nice middle six piece.
So that's it friends, the pieces to ship out seem obvious and the holes to fill seem obvious. How that gets done is anyone's guess, but Fitz has his work cut out for him. Let us know if we missed anyone at unclepuckers@gmail.com or on Twitter/X or Bluesky.
LGD
