What the Devils Need to Do This Offseason (In my always correct opinion)

Now that the dust has settled on the season and Fitz and Co. did their presser, let's take a look at where we sit and where we need to go this offseason.

Fitz is staying. He will get another crack at this so no need to work yourself up for disappointment. The only change I see happening is him ceding the GM title and assuming only the President of Hockey Ops role. Right now he holds both titles. I will say, I would think he is GMing for his job. He has 3 core responsibilities as a GM: roster building, contract negotiations, and drafting, and I think the below summarizes the general sentiment amongst the fanbase.

His biggest failure is his inability to address glaring issues in-season, and only working within traditional time frames (off-season and trade deadline). In 23-24 it was goaltending, in 24-25 it was depth. Several teams have shown over and over the ability to quickly and effectively reshuffle the deck if something isn't working, most notably Colorado this season. His second biggest failure is handing out NMCs/NTCs to everyone with a pulse. This makes moves far more difficult to execute as it gives too much control to the players. I get the intention, and multiple times he has referenced building a "family culture" but he needs to show some ruthlessness this summer (see below).

His biggest success has been locking up a good core on team friendly deals: Jack @ $8MM, Bratt and Nico just under $8MM. Timo showed his value in the playoffs, but we need more in the regular season for $8.8MM. Make no mistake though, this is not McDavid and Draisaitl, these guys need more help in the trenches.

His drafting has been a mixed bag. While the Holtz pick was a major whiff and set us back since one of our biggest needs is a top-6 wing, the verdict is still out on a lot of his draft picks. He gave up on Chase Stillman, which was a braindead choice and sent Traff away in the Dumoulin trade which may hurt 5 years from now. Luke, Nemec, Silayev, Yegorov, Hammineeho all appear to be good picks, but they are all positionally/developmentally young. 

It is instructive to take a look at our Cap situation, because it's easy to say I want I want, when you can't afford. You can want 20-30 new dolls but if you can only afford 2-3 it doesn't matter. 

The 2025-26 Salary Cap is going to be $95.5MM.

We have 11 forwards under contract for 25-26, dollars and clauses (PUCKPEDIA) included:

We have 2 goalies under contract for 25-26. Note that Daws' deal is a one-way contract so I don't see a world where he is not the 1B.

One second on the D, just need to address what I think Fitz's first priority should be: Sign Luke to an Extension. Based on AFP Analytics annual contract projections (they have both a 3yr bridge and an 8yr estimate). I rounded up the 8 year @ $8.4MM. We want him at a good rate when the cap explodes and this is in-line with Sanderson and Faber, Luke's two best comps.

So we have $91.8MM committed to players including Luke. From what I can gather (PUCKPEDIA) we also have $1.6 in bonus overages from 24-25 that will count against the 25-26 cap.

So 2.2MM in available space after Luke. That's... not ideal. So Fitz's second priority should be to Move off money/contracts.  First, I'd like to wish a happy free agency to Tatar, Bastian, Lazar and Dowling. Second, we need to figure out how to get out of 2-3 veteran players: Haula, Palat, and Dougie. Combined they contribute $18MM and change to the cap.

Moving off of Dougie seems to be the most obvious answer, as he is in season 3 of 4 of serious season shortening injuries. 2 of them were very random and not connected, but this is a pattern and $9MM on the shelf does not help this team at all. He seemed to be badly affected by the torn tittie, as he nearly tied a career low for shooting percentage at 4.8%. He did have 40 points and finished at a .6 PP/G, but half his points came from the PP. One of his best utilities was the PP1 QB and Luke seems poised to take the reins there, and Nemec showed he is capable of taking the reins on PP2. We have a logjam at RD and cannot continue to block up and coming players. Taking from a strength at RD to build up a weakness up front (see below) seems so incredibly obvious. However, execution is another thing entirely. I do think Dougie still has a lot of value for a team looking for a PP QB and low-end RD1 and an exchange for forward help should be top of the list, even if we have to eat a portion of his deal. Note that his buyout cap hit would be over $8MM in 24-25, so that is not an option. The final monkey wrench in this plan though, is Kovacevic's knee and when he can come back. Does the team trust Seaums and Nemec to take a chunk of time to start the season at RD? How long is that going to be?

Moving off of Palat would be ideal as well. I will say he was great in the playoffs, and one of most effective players there. But he was a drag all season and if we can find a younger, faster, more dynamic player to bring in, this should be option B after Dougie. Like Dougie, I do see him having some value, but maybe for a pick in the 25 draft, or a cap dump at worst. He hit career lows in TOI, was near his worst point totals of his career, and was generally ineffective. His buyout is a little more palatable than Dougie's, but I will never underestimate hockey GMs' relentless search for VeTeRaN PrESenCe.

We need a new 3C, but of a 2C quality. Badly. This was supposed to be Erik Haula's role, but he failed spectacularly. Not only going MONTHS without a point, but his defensive game fell off as well. This forced Nico into consistently getting the hardest assignments every night, nearly every D-zone draw, and PK1 detail. Haula's xGA/60 rose from 2.3 -> 22-23 and 23-24 -> 2.5 in 24-26, his HD Chances against per 60 rose from 2.0 in 22-23 -> 2.3 in 23-24  -> 2.6 in 24-25 and he almost doubled his giveaways from 24 to 41 year over year. Getting a more competent 3C that can ease some of Nico's burden as well as contribute more than 11 goals is critical. I can see him staying around as a 3rd line wing, and his 3+ MM isn't a killer, but his days as our 3C should be over.

We also need a serious Scoring Top 6 Wing or two to complement Jack/Bratt/Timo/Nico that is not named Gritsyuk. I think Arseni is going to be a good player, but we need to stop slotting him in the top 6 in every mock lineup and let the kid grow into an NHL role. Another thing is certain, Palat cannot be lined up with either line starting next year. UFA, trade, somehow this needs to happen this summer.  Does Mercer get another shot here or is he part of a trade package? One of the few guys on the roster with no trade protection and was a disappointment this year. He may just be a 3rd line wing, and his ironman streak, positional versatility and situational versatility are valuable. It's fine if he is just a 3rd line wing which lines up with his contract, but he just needs to have a more solid role if he is staying. 

I do think we take a look at Glass as a 4C, he is an RFA and due an extension. Fits in well culturally, and in a full year he could be a valuable piece as a 4C/3C.

It sounded like Dumoulin is a non-starter from Fitz's comments at his presser - "crazier things have happened" or something like that.

in terms of AHL talent - Does Halonen FINALLY get a chance? Squires? Hardman? LaChance was name dropped in the presser.

Once we get closer to July 1st and the marketplace crystallizes (who gets extended etc) I will start taking a look at UFAs (Ehlers and Boeser), trade targets (McCann, Quinn, Rossi) and offer sheet targets (Peterka, Knies). 

XX- Jack - Bratt

XX - Nico - Timo

Haula - XX - Gritsuyk

Cotter - Glass - Noesen

Luke - Pesce

Siegs - Kova/Nemec

Dillon - Casey/Nemec

Marky

Daws

A lot to consider, and the process starts now.

LGD