Very Bad, No Good Weekend

First, I will preface this saying I am also a Ravens fan, so how was my weekend?  NOT GREAT, BOB. 

Normie: "But Tim, you should be an adult and not let sports teams affect your mood!"

Me: "It's 5 fucking degreees outside, My hockey team can't score and my football team lost in a heartbreaking fashion. Fuck you! Respectfully of course." 

OK on to the Devils shit weekend. I still think we are in what qualifies as a prolonged slump here.  The same concerns keep surfacing: our offense no showed AGAIN, transitions were SLOPPY, 3rd line was TRASH, forecheck was NONEXISITENT. We had ONE good period of the six. I am... CONCERNED. I do NOT HAVE CAPS LOCK ON, but maybe I should. 

The one silver lining in this regression is the defensive game seems to have come back online after being a mess for a few games. We are still in these games which is wild considering just how non-existent the offense has looked. Some other teams that have had prolonged swoons (Rangers and Canucks off the top of my head) were getting their doors blown off on the scoreboard as well. This is also why we should be praying to our Swedish lord and savior Jacob Markstrom for keeping us in games where our defensive game was off. Since the first Carolina game, 9 of the 11 have been 1 goal games and 9 of 11 they've given up 3 or less goals (and Toronto's 4th was OT).  They are now 6-9 in 1 goal games, not a good omen for the playoffs.

It's the scoring guys, which all 4 of you read here about in my last blog: 

https://theunclepuckers.com/blog/canadian-federal-prison-treatment.

Next, I want to note it seems a good chunk of the squad is shitting themselves. Both on and off the ice.  But when you are physically ill, it takes a toll, regardless of how many internet tough guys say "you get paid millions, dance monkey!" 

It's not an excuse, but can definitely be part of the reason.

The Flyers game was one of the worst, if not the worst, game this season. It was just the most Saturday afternoon game of all time - boring, lifeless, frustrating. I will hand it to the Flyers, they played a strong, structured defensive game - and gave us the best game they have. They blocked 33 shots and you could visibly see the frustration build throughout the game. Before our end of game 6 on 5 flurry we only generated about 1.5 expected goals, and as everyone saw we only put up 13 shots. They did to us what we did to teams in December. 

I will say it was great to see Dougie get on the board, as I wrote before, his offensive play generation and shooting has been almost identical to his career best 22-23 season, he was just.. not scoring. He was shooting 1% at 5v5 this year and overall 3.7% (half of his 22-23 Shooting %) prior to Saturday. I see a lot of people ready to ship Dougie off to the moon, but I will explicitly tell all of you who think that: you are wrong. He is the best net positive defenseman BY FAR and on a team that struggles to score, we need this guy on the ice.

Goals: 1st, Double the next D-man

Assists: 1st, +7 over Luke

Shot attempts per 60: 1st, by a lot

Shots per game: 1st, double the next D man

HD Shots: 1st, Double the next D man

HD xG: 1st, triple the next D man

Rebounds created: 1st, Triple the next bet D man

xG Created: 1st, double the next best D man

xGF: 1st, Double the next D-man (11th in the league)

xGF%: 1st, by a lot 

CF%: 1st, by a decent amount

FF%: 1st, by a decent amount

BUT HIS DEFENSE, right? He is not a defensive d-man by any stretch and doesn't PK, but it is not nearly as horrible as many seem to think. The way I tend to look at it: puck on his stick: good, puck not on his stick: prepare for the ride.

Hits: 4th, and only 10 behind Kova

Blocked Shots: 3rd, tied with Dillon

Shots attempts against: 2nd, behind Luke

HD Shots against: 3rd, ahead of Kova and Pesce 

xGA/60: 4th, very close to Kova and ahead of Pesce

Goal Differential: +29, 6th in the league, first on the team by by 24 (Jonas is a +5) - note this is not plus/minus, it is all goal differential and he does not PK

HE IS SO SLOW, right?  Wrong again. He's not a burner, but he has adequate speed. He's not catching Owen Tippet who is in the 99th percentile for speed in the league. 

The league has biometric tracking devices implanted in every player, so this is irrefutable, he is above average in nearly every speed category, aside from 20-22 MPH bursts. He is tall and has an upright stride, but a 6'6" guy can make up a lot of ground. 

The only thing where he has the highest rates is in giveaways, which frankly, are oddly tracked and I don't put a lot of stock into those numbers. All this being said I am aware he does make a glaring mistake here and there. It happens to every D in the league - forwards in this league are all very highly skilled - but I really need people to understand just how much of a net positive Dougie is. Watch his full game, and not just hyper focus on one 50/50 puck that didn't go his way. Also, realize his primary D partner is the real problem.  I'll get into that some other time.

Phew, didn't expect to get this sidetracked. 

There wasn't much else in the Philly game that I liked, it was just meh. Didn't like anyone's game, and really not much redeemable about it - maybe the 4th line which has improved and glad Bastian got a point (even though it was a simple low-high pass that a peewee could make). ). We don't ask them to score so it's a bonus when they do. We should win games handily when they get on the board.  For the most part though everyone got caved in, we didn't have a single guy over 40% in xGF% - (that is bad mkay). 

Speaking of the 4th line, on to the Ottawa game. They had also played the night before in a banger against Boston, so it was great to see us jump all over them in the first.  Our best period of play in god knows how long - we looked crisp, connected, transitions were good, got 3-4 really good chances and went into the 2nd with more shots than the entire Philly game. But we didn't score.  Again. And you could see the deflation to start the second and Keefe even said he had those intrusive thoughts. Maybe Ottawa found their legs, but I think we let up.  And I could feel it coming in the air tonight..  oh lordddd.. and fuck us, a shitty screened goal that squeezed through Markstrom by not made up person Zack Ostapchuck. His first of his career, hey congrats buddy, suck a dick. I've seen Dougie blamed for this one by people who don't puck, but this is on Mercer and Dowling. First, Mercer is on the wrong side of his guy when Dougie tries to head man it to him up the boards, Mercer then gets beat because waving your stick around frantically doesn't seem to work, and Dowling..  just was kinda not helping at all. 

A move I liked in the Philly game was moving Mercer to center - not because he's playing well - but because it got him off the boards where he is just a fucking feather. He has got to lose more board battles than anyone on the team and if anyone who reads this has those numbers I would love to see them - I don't have subscriptions to sportlogiq or any other fancy place. He was too high in the zone, above the wing, and with his strength he had no chance at winning that battle, so he just waved his stick around. I still think Mercer has a lot to add to his game and I'm not ready to give up on him, but man he has had a tough season and just doesn't seem to fit in anywhere. I really think our biggest and most glaring need is that 3C spot because, while I love a good AHLer story, Dowling ain't it.    

One thing we seem to be oddly good at recently though, is getting the first one back - and quickly. The aforementioned fourth line continues to elevate their play of late, and a much needed and well deserved goal for Tuna got us back to square. Maybe the tide was turning? well dear readers it was not. Early in the 3rd, another NPC of Ottawa's snuck a seeing eye shot through an ill-advised screen by Bastian and we were absolutely lifeless after that.. Hey, at least we were getting chances right? Checks the stat line..  2 SHOTS? 2 FUCKING SHOTS? Ottawa played last night too you fucks. This game went from promising a rebound to depression so quickly, I started rope shopping online with about 10 minutes left. Cool, a little flurry on 6 on 5. Meh.

We need our big boys to score more, plain and simple.  They need to be better.

Jack has a 3 pt game, then is responsible for giveaways that lead to goals in the next two. More consistency please.

Timo spends more time at Louis Vuitton and on dating apps than on the score sheet. Put it in the goal please.

Bratt hasn't score din 84 years, expect when he's offisides. You too, put it in the goal please.

Nico went cold for a while, and his early heater has cooled off, but he's only a misdemeanor is a sea of felons that are robbing this team.

Luke is in a funk, he needs to get back on his rocketship trajectory.

Our PP has dropped to 3rd overall, and since depositing 3 PPG against the Caps on 11/30, they are clicking at 17% with 7 straight games with no success on PP in December. Funnily it has actually IMPROVED since 1/1 - 26% - but it doesn't seem to instill fear into other teams anymore and is easily challenged on the perimeter with pressure, especially up top. I think it is time for a personnel change, swap Bratt and Timo.  We need a better facilitator on PP2 (Bratt) and a better shooter on PP1 (Timo).

There is no real way to track effort, but sometimes it seems like it isn't full there. Since January, we have only gotten 3 or more PPs in half the games (and 2 of those were partial), and have only gotten 1 PP twice.  This says to me they aren't taking that extra step to force guys into mistakes. The last three games, we haven't cracked 20 hits which tells me we aren't finishing through the body.  Both of these signal a lack of effort. The goals against are detail/focus related: small blown coverages, or mindless turnovers.  This is a lack of effort.  

We need more, we need better. A trade is probably happening, but the first tool in the toolkit is to juggle lines.  This needs to happen ASAP. And get back to the details that won games and score some fucking goals you assholes.

We've seen this team be very good this season and a real contender, and need it to get back together and fucking quickly. CBJ, NYR, OTT, BOS, MTL are all creeping up on streaks of their own. We have fallen below a .600 win pct. (98 pt pace) which is a bit of a bellwether line for me. I still have faith, but man, it is wavering.

UGH, this is your fault Valiquette, probably. 

LGD.