Welcome back to all 3 of you that read this nonsense, I hope you all had a lovely 4 Nations break. Devils hockey returned with a split against Dallas and Nashville so let's see what your favorite beer league hero saw this weekend.
First up was Dallas, a tough matchup to come back to (I'm still in your walls schedule maker person - we're gonna have words some day). I was somewhat encouraged by their play however it was more of the same with the good play and the good goaltending and the bad finishing and the 1-0 them.
This game was frustrating as we were dominating. That is not an exaggeration: the Devils were on the front foot, controlling play, getting the lion share of chances.. but guess what folks, you might want to sit down for this. We didn't score and they did. I know, shocker. We had some call-ups in Nemec and Casey, and it really seems like we might be getting some sort of competition/audition here, and it didn't go well for Simon. He made a pretty rough mistake following Borque too far up the boards and not handing off to Jack.. Borque found Dumba who let a pass-off-pad go from the point, and Dadonov (whom Nemec should have been with) was butt ass naked sitting in front and could've made a cocktail, put on lotion, and stretched out in the sand before he buried it. Sigh. This is one of my biggest concerns that I've seen emerge about Nemec, he is very much a freelancer and goes walkabout in the D-zone. He needs to be playing within the system.
OK, no big deal right? We've been here before and have been the comeback kids over the past few years. Then the softest fucking penalty I've ever seen (ever, shut up) against Dillon.. I mean, are we not allowed to push? Are we not going to call the late hit on Dougie? No? we're going to call this bullshit. I see. Well, since it's a soft penalty the rules state they will score. That's the law and Dallas followed the law. Speaking of not calling penalties, didn't Nico get interfered with here? Re-watch it. While he should be taking the inside route, he gets forced to the outside around Johnson, who holds him up and trips him so Harley can get a clean look. Quick side note - this kid Harley is nasty, one of the more impressive players in 4 nations. And well, you know the rest, not much Allen can do through traffic.
Like I said, we were really controlling play here but Dallas capitalized on their limited chances and we couldn't bury one for the life of us. We held the territorial battle by some pretty big margins: 64% CF, 59% xGF, 11-6 scoring chances advantage, and 12-9 shot advantage after the first. The spreadsheet boys would tell you we should be winning, but one rookie breakdown, one bad penalty and one non-call and it's 2-0.
The 2nd period was pretty low event, traded some chances, our boys continued their run of being snakebitten and Allen was very good again, so let's FF to the 3rd. We were well on our way to shutout number 7 against, but we FINALLY got on the board with our super star Jack showing the world (and Timo) how to bury a fucking one timer. High, hard and to the near post. That was a gorgeous shot, and are we back? We might be ba-- wait shit they scored again, Haula.. what you doing man. Ugh it's over.. Wait we're back! Another snipe by Jacky boy, this game turned chaotic for a hot minute there. Are you gonna make me believe? I migh-- ahh shit empty netter and it's over.
I think I really captured the spirit of the thing there.
The process was there, but the finishing continues to be a major red flag - we're going to need 5 years to dig out of the xG differential hole we are in. Unfortunately, objects in mirror are closer than they appear and we are running out of time to claim the territorial win - even though it was against the 3rd best team in the league and we netted out at a 61% CF and 51% xGF. That drop off does tell a story though - we got chances, but Dallas got the more dangerous chances.
So, Nashville on back to backs after another moral victory (schedule guy, where do you live, I just wanna talk). Well this was a different story - a pretty wide open game and it seems Keefe had enough of Nemec because our Irish prince who was promised slots in with Luke. Not the D-pair I would've chosen but with Jonas out for a while, suddenly we are looking a little light back there and need to keep it together.
First things first, this was a milestone/record mania. Kinda crazy how many different records were broken, met and milestones achieved. Let's run through them, shall we:
- Palat 500th point
- Dougie 500th point
- Bratt franchise record: 10 games with an assist
- Jack franchise record: points in 10 straight road games
- First time 3 goalies have had SOs since 18-19
- First time we have had 8 SOs since 10-11
- First career SO for Daws
We scored first? What the hell is this, I don't know what to do with my hands.. Just a disgusting pass by Luke to find Palat in front who didn't brick this one. Good strong stick by Pally there in traffic. For the first time in NHL history two players got their 500th point on the same goal (Palat got the puck). We need the next one boys for me to feel comfortable - we were bleeding chances and the Preds were controlling the fancy numbers in this one so far: 11-9 Scoring chances and 6-3 HD Scoring chances. But since we have a sicko in goal named Nico who eats breakaways for every meal - we went into the 2nd with the lead. PS, Casey had a 100% xGF in the 1st period (rut-ro Simon).
More open play and a little looser moving into the 2nd, but Nico (Daws) was the story again, eating pucks and HD chances - man this kid looked great. Nico (Hischier) found Dougie for an absolute laser beam that I didn't even realize went in. This motherfucker may be the best natural scorer on our team and has been on a goddamn mission since coming back from break. He continues to get disrespected by our fan based, and I continue to tap the sign: if you think he sucks, you have no fucking idea what you're talking about or watching.
Possibly my favorite goal of the game came next (sorry Dougie) - Casey got the puck up top and showed off that elite deceptive shot of his. He looked off Jack for a split second, getting the goalie to cheat, and he ripped it back cross side off the post. This kid cannot stop scoring, just need to find him a helmet that fits because he looks like a little kid in that bucket. So, we are up 3-0, things are looking good and OH MY GOD is that Dougie shirtless during intermission!! this man is ripped holt shit, I might've questioned some things about myself for a second. Rachel, his eyes are up here.
Anyway, we cruised into the 3rd and added some insurance goals - beauty of a PP goal on my favorite down-low triangle play between Bratt-Nico-Noesen. My groin pulled itself after Noesen somehow got that off. We were doing a lot of bending but not breaking here, Daws was excellent and guys were eating pucks - that is some heart and playing for your goalie there - Timo saved a goal, Bastian with a massive block, Pesce with several, Dillon, Luke.. everyone was eating pucks to get this kid the SO. Unfortunately it was broken - BUT wait - it's offside! Fuck you music city, we're done and dusted curb stomping the off season champs. How's that decision looking, Marchessault?
I'm not going to jump the gun on Nemec vs. Casey here, but we do have duplicative assets on the right side and based on this two game sample its not looking good for Nemec. As of now, it just seems like Casey has the more explosive upside and overall play has been far better. I'm still not sure if he is the better long term play here, but we have A+ trade chips in one of them and at this moment it should be Simon in a trade for a top-6 wing. A young high ceiling RD is absolutely a coveted piece and could fill our most glaring need. It sucks to part with a #2 overall pick, but at this point there are 3 players and 1 slot moving forward. Casey has seemingly had the much better attitude about being in the A as well, and while Simon isn't necessarily wrong about what he said, he didn't show that his comments were warranted. This seems like a mini-competition/audition over the next few games between the two.
Haula-Cotter is the worst forward pairing I have seen a while, and I am very concerned Haula has fallen off a cliff. Against Dallas, Cotter-Haula-Mercer had an xGF of 7% (dat's really bad) and against Nashville Cotter-Haula-Bastian had an xGF of 30% (also very bad). I'm no scientist but using the process of elimination methinks the problem is Cotter-Haula as a combo. And if you're into this kinda thing, play with the line tool at Natural Stat Trick and they legit drag everyone down around them and have an AWFUL history together.
Want some more numbers? YES TIM I LOVE NUMBERS ON MONDAY MORNING. Aww shucks guys, here you go:
Dallas game
Jack-Bratt-Palat: 79% xGF, 83% CF
Timo-Nico-Noes: 75% xGF, 53% CF
Cotter-Haula-Mercer: 7% xGF, 27% CF
Tuna-Lazar-Bastian: 90% xGF, 81% CF
Nashville Game
Jack-Bratt-Palat: 83% xGF, 65% CF
Tatar-Nico-Noes: 77% xGF, 56%CF
Timo-Dowling-Mercer: 48% xGF, 57% CF
Cotter-Haula-Bastian: 30% xGF, 27% CF
Clearly these two should not be together. And Mercer certainly isn't helping, the one time we got pinned in against Dallas, it was Mercer who failed to clear the puck TWICE, once getting bodied at the blue line and the second time with a lazy one-handed poke.
So where does this leave us? We need a major upgrade in the top 6 and 3C continues to be our biggest need, we cannot run Dowling out there and Haulas see above. I don't think Jake Evans moves the needle for me and Neither does Donato. The one guy I keep coming back to who would transform this team as a 3C is Ryan O'Reilly. Can we leave Simon behind for him? For wing there are several options: Tuch, McCann, Rakell all would be viable options here. Even Brock Boeser. The biggests issue I think Fitz is running into is the lack of sellers right now and prices. The logjam in the east and lack of decent options on the shitty teams has really made it a thin marketplace. Fitz may need to overpay for help, because we need it up front. And don't sleep on finding LD help to fill the Jonas sized gap.
The Avs are up next - and our old buddy Blackwood and probably the scariest forward in the league in Nate and the best defenseman in Makar. Need to keep it rolling, take the play from Dallas and scoring from Nashville and roll it into a ball and we got something here. But need to see consistency and I'm not confident they can do that yet.
How are the Rangers doing Valiquette? OH NO not great I see!
LGD
