As in ride the lightning outta town, amirite? Bueller?
I got a little bit of playoff vibes last night: tight checking, high energy - back and forth back and forth. There are still some lingering issues that'll I'll get into below, but that was a really strong game against a nemesis that has beaten the shit out of us so far this season to the tune of 12-4 anbd we hadn't beaten TBL at home in 5 fucking years, game 3 of the 2018 playoffs being the last time. That's a real stat, not good!
The boys got another strong start and were controlling rush chances while TBL maintained a little more O-zone possession. We FINALLY got on the board first with a goal that counted, yay us, that was a relief. Some fantastic work by Jack's line led to our first goal with contributions from everyone: Jack with a great puck retrieval, Bratter getting it low to high for a Dougie shot, and Palat with a sexy high tip and we are on the board. Palat did some good work as well running interference to let Jack get that puck, and he had a well-timed route to the high slot while keeping his stick free. Jack's line, and Jack in particular, had a really good bounce back game - his reads and passes were crisp and smarter and they were fantastic in the Ozone AND off the rush. The pace slowed a little after this goal, and Tampa got their footing back, scoring their own goal shortly after off some bad puck luck from Kovacevic. He's had a tough run of late, with 3 straight goals coming off accidental tips from him (Fox PP, Panarin PP was deflected by him throwing Marky off leading to that rebound, and Hedman's shot). Sometimes you have these runs where shit doesn't go perfectly and things like that happen.
Speaking of bad puck luck - our finishing still remains an issue. We had several grade A chances in the first where we really could've put some daylight between us, but Jack shot wide on a 3 on1, Bratt hit the post at the end of the period, and Timo buried a 2 on1 right in Vasy's chest. Below is a chart that basically represents "finishing" at 5 on 5 and as you can see we are still well below the water line even though it's leveled off a bit the last few games. The all situations chart looks similar. We are now 2nd to last in the league on GFAE (Goals For Above Expected) so we are still generating a ton of chances, but not cashing in. It can be debated whether this is luck or a lack of pure finishers but as with everything it's probably somewhere in between. I think some better puck luck is coming, and I'll talk about some finishers I have been eyeballing below.
We started out the second pretty well, but it was a little sleepier than the 1st - this was two strong defensive teams stifling chances at either end. We strung together some strong shifts but nothing outrageously dangerous. If you didn't think the puck luck convo above wasn't foreshadowing, well all 4 of you don't know me well because we FINALLY got a good break. Jack picked off an ill-advised cross ice pass from Point, drove up the RW boards, and cut into the middle. Sal voice: Stop the tape for a second, get the pointer out! I'd like to note Noesen on this goal. He crosses in front of Jack and takes Raddysh with him which creates space for Jack to cut into the slot. With Timo driving far post that left both Hedman and Point in no man's land so Jack could load up a shot. Because of Timo's far post drive, Point was late getting his stick in the lane and Jack's shot deflected off it, fooling Vasy and fluttering over his shoulder. The reason I note Timo and Nosen on this: when you have a pass/shoot dual threat like Jack carrying the puck, driving through the zone to the net causes an issue for the D: if they step up to Jack, he slips it through, if they back off, he gets a clean shot. tell your kids, tell your wife, tell your dog - there are always things you can do to contribute to a goal off-puck so don't just watch. Honorary assists for them.
We locked down the rest of the period, and here we are - going into the 3rd with a lead, which we are good at protecting. However we started the period on a kill, and immediately got a second penalty. The PK was my MVP in this game, a fantastic kill in the 2nd, and 2 PKs to start the 3rd could've really turned the tide for them in this game, but they managed only 2 shots on goal across all three. The kill in the 2nd was particularly sexy, Mercer ate multiple pucks, Siegs was a beast clearing (remember when he had issues with that) and Dillon was a monster net front. Shutting down a lethal PP with an assassin like Kucherov and Point is god's work - Point was shooting just under 50% on the PP (50!!!) so shutting that down was incredible work.
Aaaaand, we're back to bad puck luck again and oh look it's a fucking ref in the way again. It is truly remarkable how much the refs have affected the outcome of games for us recently, but I do credit McDonough for getting that puck right back up to Hagel to Kuckerov who isn't missing a breakaway. Get the fuck outta the way refs and linseman, please and thank you. It would've been super duper to get some chances and maybe get back on top, but credit to Tampa they locked it down and we only had 1 shot (that's all we got, one goddamn shot?!) all period. on to OT we go.
Jack seemed to have gotten the "share the puck" memo, as we dominated the OT period, and he was much cleaner and didn't force anything the whole time. Quick shoutout to Timo again - throwing the puck back to Marky so we could get a change and regroup - this directly led to Jack bull rushing and drawing a penalty, forcing a 4 on 3. And one of my favorite moments - the timeout. I'm still not sure Lindy knows he is allowed to do that, but Keefe and COlliton drawing up some magic, and plopping Noesen net front was one of the best strokes of genius. the puck squirts out to Noesen and taps the sign if you go to the net good things will happen. Beauty finish from our new bald beautiful netfront god Stefan - what a fucking win. Playoff style.
Quick shoutout to Siegs, he played almost 7 minutes against Kucherov at 5v5, held him to one shot and heavily won the xGF battle @ 94%. He continues to be a shutdown god.
That's 6 straight at the Rock, and we are 21-0-1 when leading after 2.
Trade chatter:
I will continue to add/subtract to this as I go but I see us going depth volume, or a big swing at top 6. Most likely the former, but crazier things have happened. We are in our window and every year from here on out we should be all-in, we have the health, the goalies, and the core to make a run. I mentioned our finishing above, and I'm really curious what Fitz will do here - he has better info than we do, but if we are looking at top-6 sniper sniper types I keep coming back to two guys:
Jared McCann on Seattle. He has a reasonable contract @ $5MM AAV through 26-27. Broke out with 40 goals two years ago, but is probably closer to the 29 he put up last year. A PP2 guy on Seattle, so he's not overly dependent on that.
The other guy I love and so does Chris is Alex Tuch on Buffalo, a slightly better contract @ $4.75MM for two more years, and he is a mountain of a man: 6'4" 215 who had 36 goals in 22-23 but only 22 last year on a bad team. Probably a 25-30 goal guy. He also isn't PP dependent, as he sits on unit 2 for Buffalo.
Because both have term and reasonable cap hits the price would be hefty, but we have a ton of assets that teams covet, picks and B/B+ prospects, plus a roster player could cover it. However if Nemec and/or Casey come up I'm hanging up. Fitz doesn't love rentals, or at a minimum wants to keep guys long-ish term, so guys with a bit of term, mid/late 20s we should be eyeballing. Let me know if you like someone else.
If we leave the top 6 as is, which I think is a real possibility with Palat scoring now, 2 depth forwards with some center/wing versatility to upgrade the 3rd/4th line wings. Bastian and Tatar flat out stink, and Cotter is best served as a 4th liner. I really like Trent Frederic from Boston, a pending RFA who sounds like is on his way out in Boston. Big, mean, skates well, and has some scoring pop. I'm hard thinking about it. Guy #2 is Elli Tolvanen from Seattle, not a big dude but is an absolute menace, hits everything that moves (200+ last year) and has some scoring pop - drafted by Nashville as a scorer. Tolvanen has 2 more years @ 3.475MM.
3C also continues to be a problem, and we could look at Granlund from SJ or O'Reilly from Nashville here. The theory behind Granlund would give Cotter and Mercer a better play driving center as they have been good but the C position is a black hole. O'Reilly also gives us a better shutdown option so Nico doesn't have to take the brunt of that and he also has some pop and has been there before.
I see us bringing in 2-3 guys to fill out our holes and there are a few different ways Fitz could go, he knows better than we do what we need and I have some faith in him. Overall we have $2.5-3MM in current cap space, which projects out to $5-7MM AAV player or 2 at the deadline, depending on the day and accrual.
Did I miss anyone? Who are you looking at? What do you think Steve? Just kidding - I don't give a fuck about your opinion, Valiquette.
