I'm bored, this bores me.
The general NHL marketplace has been relatively quiet, going back to the TDL. While there was some Rantanen chaos and the Marner sign and trade, most teams have been focused on retention and upgrading on the margins, resulting in a general lack of chaos and movement. Fell for it again award goes to all of us again with a repeat Cup Final, hours of breath wasted on Marchand and Bennet's FA contracts, offer sheets, a dud of a FA class and very little trading done at the draft that was basically chalk. I'll believe it when I see about this upcoming "trade szn."
Booooo.
To loosely quote a couple of insiders "only the Penguins are actively trying to lose." That means that the typical haves and have nots are not swapping bad deals for upgrades, and it feels like a good old fashioned mexican standoff. Now, we are promised trades coming after the Ehlers signing, and well, it's been a few days and the only one we got was a swap of good prospects (Howard for O'Relly).
First, let's chat about what came in and what left. Fitz indicated that it "won't look the same" this upcoming year and that is true, I guess. It's more an addition by subtraction by not re-signing a bunch of garbage at the bottom of our lineup. Make no mistake, he did well to swap out some trash and bring in some upgrades in the bottom/middle six. We say goodbye to Dowling, Tatar, and Lazar who have all signed elsewhere, and we still have the threat of late FA deals/PTOs for Bastian and Sprong, although I doubt that will happen at this point. HOPE that won't happen at this point. Please god FItz, if Bastian is anywhere near this team next year, I have a specific set of skills that make me a nightmare for guys like you. I will find you and write a strongly worded letter directed to the Devils front office.
So Fitz identified 5 on 5 scoring as our biggest need after his philosophical quest to discover the meaning of depth scoring. Not sure if he went on an ayahuasca retreat to get there but it definitely was an issue as our 5 on 5 scoring was, simply put, bad. All those shutouts were not a coincidence as we were largely carried by an electric PP, Stingy PK, Defense and Goalies. The Devils ranked 26th in 5 on 5 goals, were a minus 3 as a team for the year, and 11th in xGF%. From January through March that 5 on 5 xGF% number dipped close to 40%, one of the worst play driving and scoring chance generation rates in the league. The guys we let go scored 26 goals in total, 3 on the PP. Dadonov and Brown scored 33 goals combined last season, and only 3 on the PP (all Dadonov). So that is an immediate upgrade, especially at 5 on 5.
The best piece of business Fitz pulled off, and shocked basically everyone, was Allen's new deal which stretched the term to get the AAV low. Fell for it again award for all of us listening to insiders like Frankie Spaghetti and Davey Fourth Period. I had talked myself into Daws, but primarily because of the reported number floated for Allen. Daws now has to clear waivers, and it will be interesting to see if he becomes part of a trade package. Teams were supposedly calling about Marc Andre Fleury, so he might have a little value.
So, where do we sit? the Devils primarily followed the league, retained/working on retaining important pieces, let bad pieces go, and upgraded on the margins. We are a better team for it. Fitz didn't fuck anything up, or give out any atrocious deals (see: Los Angeles Kings, Boston Bruins). I've seen some people whine about the Brown deal relative to the Panthers 4th line, but we have different contract efficiencies and can spread money in different ways.
Anyway, the top line wing and 3C still remain a mystery, still could be worked on, or we could ride with where we stand. Am I happy about the latter? Not necessarily, but we are a better team on paper simply by upgrading some of the bottom 6 personnel. My reckless speculation at the lineup:
Mercer-Nico-Timo
Dadonov-Jack-Bratt
Palat-Glass-Noesen
Cotter -Lammikko-Brown
LaChance
MacDermid
Luke-Pesce
Dillon-Hamilton
Siegs-Nemec
Cholowski
Kovacevic (IR)
Marky
Allen
Here's the problem. This is just... fine. This lineup does not beat the Panthers, and probably loses to the Canes again. They need to play the games, and anything can happen, but in theory that's not good enough. We need to get back to excellence. "Fine" isn't good enough and I'm fucking tired of that attitude.
So what needs to happen here?
First, what we really need is the top of the lineup to stay healthy, play to their hockey cards (trademark: Bob) and one of the most important numbers for next year will be games played next to Jack Hughes' name (trademark: Chris). He needs to drop his nuts on the league and drop 100+ points finally. We need Timo to finish. We need Bratt and Nico to continue getting better. We need Gritsyuk to pop. We need to know if Lammikko is a real person (I still have doubts). We are in year 2 of Keefe, which should make the systems more ingrained in the players with a sprinkle of new speed. Brad Shaw is a lowkey fantastic add, and should really bolster our defensive systems and individual play. Too often an extreme defensive posture and lack of speed killed this team.
Another contributing factor to the anemic 5 on 5 offense was the lack of passing ability from the defensive end, and a lack of offensive production from the D group in general. Half the D group treated the puck like a grenade, coupled with a lack of skill/speed for half the forward group and you have a recipe for bad transition play. When Nico, Bratt, Timo and Jack have to do 100% of the 200 foot transition play and Siegs, Pesce and Kovacevic are mediocre passers, well you get the point. So this brings me to a major point of contention amongst Devils fans, Douglas Entertainment Hamilton. Our only good passers were Dougie, and to an extent Luke.
I think it is a bad idea to move on from Dougie. A new shiny forward over Dougie is a net negative move. Casey showed flashes of offensive chops, but largely his defensive game was a disaster and was bailed out by a 970ish sv pct. His xG% was 43%, Nemec was 42%. In contrast, Dougie's was 63% (51% at 5 on 5). For those that scoff at xG as a metric I use it as a barometer of play controlling, and chasing the game for 60% of your minutes is bad, mmk. Nemec has a top pair ceiling and an AHL floor. Could he be great coming off a successful playoff? Maybe? Did you watch him during the season? He needs some insulation, not an immediate jump to being super important at work. The risk of Dougie's middling D play vs the risk of 2 young defenders with worse defensive play is an easy call in my book. We need Dougie's play driving, his pinching down the wall to keep Ozone time alive, his calmness and control on the PP. And contrary to what people think his defensive issues are overblown: he has great length, seals guys along the wall and wins the bulk of his board battles. His first pass out of the zone is still elite. He was 12th in scoring and on pace for his career standard. He is just a tick under the 70th percentile in the league for top speed, so isn't "slow." His goals were down from an impossibly high 22 goal standard, because his shot was a little off, and the PP also de-emphasized it for down low play (See: Noesen's goal totals). My primary issue with Doug is his ability to stay healthy and his gap control can be an adventure. Those are valid concerns. But I'd rather have Casey and Nemec as a backup plan for Dougie then Cholowski as the next man up for Casey/Nemec.
So all that being said, I don't see where the value exchange is in a Dougie for a forward move. The Robo move would be for futures (Nemec + picks) and do we have to take on Dumba? They're trying to get out of salary, not add it. Kyrou rumors I don't believe, and his NTC just kicked in. McCann is still a target, but what do they want? Try and figure out what Seattle is doing, I dare you. PIttsburgh? Rakell and/or Rust? What do they want back, picks/prospects? Certainly not Dougie, they have their own Karlsson to deal with. No Chance we take that back, it would be even worse, defense is the most optional part of his game, not to mention his contract. I've also completely given up on the 3C hopes, looks like that is Mercer/Glass moving forward since 20+ teams are also in the market for a 2/3C upgrade. Hopefully they can work through that depth issue with deployment.
I do think we need to move off Palat's deal, should be a no brainer particularly to finalize the Luke deal. If Dougie somehow gets moved for a forward, then I see something like Liljegren in SJ being an interesting target for a Palat trade to protect Casey/Nemo. He's in the last year of his deal, and we give him an opportunity to goose his numbers and to flip at the deadline for another good forward upon Kovacevic's return.
I'd also like to see Fitz flip a couple mid round picks for Evan Rodrigues in Florida, they are over the cap and have to trim a contract. I've said this a few times, but Instead of an $8MM dollar forward that will need PP time to hit his production expectations (see: Timo), we need a few more mid-level compliments (like Brown and Dadonov), and Erod fits that bill, he plays a good soldier top 6 role.
So, Fitz wyd my man? What is this team gonna look like? We done here?
It's hot out, go have a good summer friends.
LGD
