Their circuit's dead, something's wrong
Can you hear me GM Tom
Can you hear me GM Tom
Can you hear me GM Tom
Sigh. All I want is for my favorite team to be a good hockey team. To show up when our fans show up for them. A lot is going wrong right now, and not much is going right.
This is their xG% for every game since 2021 (Covid). See that red dot? That is the game last night against Vegas, so I can confirm numerically - that was their worst game in 4 years. They couldn't generate shit, couldn't get through the neutral zone, couldn't get into the offensive zone, couldn't retrieve dump-ins, couldn't cycle or generate anything off of that. We got fucking bullied out of our own rink by a team that was going through their own struggles.
I've talked about the 3/4 ice game before, but we made it far too easy for Vegas. They absolutely dominated the neutral zone, and we had no answer - this led to simple regroups for them. Every time we got out of our own zone, it was right back in. Same for when we got into their zone, we had zero forecheck presence and it was right back out. I counted twice in the entire game that we actually won a puck retrieval... and both times, it took one errant pass and they were right back out.
There are two things happening that I see - one is a lack of talent. We have 5-6 guys that just fucking stink and are just out there getting cardio in. Clearly missing Nico hurts, as Haula is playing a bigger role than he should and Dowling is playing at all. Lazar, Bastian, and Tuna are a brutal 4th line and last night was no different, clocking in at a pathetic 18.9 xGF%. But that wasn't even our worst line as Mercer, Haula and Meier got caved in to the tune of 17.4 xGF%. Losing Nico is obviously a massive blow, but it has really exposed the absolute lack of talent in the bottom six. Mercer fucking sucks and it's time to cut bait.
The second thing I see is an over-commitment to a defensive game. We are playing a wildly conservative game, and the aforementioned lack of talent can't take advantage of breakdowns - and when you play a team like Vegas, who doesn't have breakdowns, we have no way of generating fuck all. We have completely abandoned anything that made this team special 2 years ago. I do appreciate good shutdown D, but we still need to score and the shackles are stifling us right now. There is too much distance and no connectivity from Defense to Forward when breaking out and regrouping in the neutral zone. Get the puck up faster, I see too much time being taken by the D to move it up, and when they do its a pass right into contested traffic, to basically stationary forwards. This is the tip-dump bullshit that never works - and when we do actually get it through, the forwards have no speed generated and can't get on top of the opposing D quick enough or our forecheckers whiff on retrievals. When we do actually get a puck back on a dump-in, we are so disconnected in our cycling, it's 1-2 passes and its a turnover. THEN, After those turnovers it is waaaaayyyy too easy for breakouts, we have very little disruption going on at the top of the Ozone or along the boards. It is TOO FUCKING EASY TO PLAY US.
Noesen summed it up last night: "we need to show a little more energy, a little more care." He went on to say it was a trickle down from the big boys, and not sure if that was a direct indictment of Jack, Bratt, Timo, Dougie.. but we obviously have a major secondary leadership void with Nico out. They need to figure it out, and fight through whatever this is. Go out and get fucked up together. Go on a team bender. SOMETHING.
Nemec was awful last night in his debut, but it is fucking so silly to write him off. He does need to calm the fuck down and just play hockey, he was clearly nervous and his gaps were god awful last night. Keefe sat him for half the 2nd, and I don't think it was punitive - it was simply for him to relax and get in the flow. That being said, much of the D corps was similarly bad last night, only Kova an Pesce were remotely competent, and they even had some awful moments.
We need some serious roster surgery: Tatar, Bastian, Lazar, Mercer, and Dowling are not competent NHL players right now. It is remarkable how the turnover in the bottom six over the past two years has this team sinking like a rock. Dowling and Lazar ain't it up the middle.
I am making up the assets needed for these trades, and haven't done the cap math so feel free to tell me I'm a moron but here are some suggestions:
-2nd and 3rd for Jake Evans
-Mercer and a 2nd for Boeser, some retention
-'26 protected first for Frederic, half retained
-Tatar for a 5th
-Dowling to the AHL
-Bastian to forward #13
Boeser - Jack - Bratt
Timo - Nico - Noesen
Palat - Evans - Frederic
Cotter - Haula - Lazar
Bastian
MacDermid
With Nemec up, our cap situation is dire siting at $535k in current space, and less than $3MM in deadline space (hence the retention above). We have assets to burn and nothing above hurts the future in any sort of way. The '26 first being the best asset and it should be a late rounder, so let it go. Stop fucking hoarding, Fitz.
Can you hear me, GM Tom?
Can you hear me, GM Tom?
Can you hear me, GM Tom?
Sigh.
OK, so oddly the world is still not ending. We still have some breathing room for 3rd in the Metro and only 2 pts behind the Canes. The early return on Rantanen hasn't been great, while Necas is thriving in Colorado. Columbus lost their two best players in Monahan and Marchenko, and the Rangers didn't fix their D and still blow. Lou will fuck up the Isles somehow. The bigger problem is the Atlantic which is in a dogfight for 3rd-6th and we NEED to stick around in 3rd.
Hey what do you think Steve? HAHHA just kidding, fuck you, buddy.
LFGD
