It's not over until you lose at home.
Season on the line, decimated by injuries, pulled most of my hair out, paced around a little bit. The boys showed some pride and resilience and the crowd (you were incredible) willed them to a win in 2 OTs. There hasn't been a lot of joy around these parts of late and they could give it all back on Sunday, but for now boys and girls, we have ourselves a series. Not a single unbiased outlet gave us a chance in this series but we can beat this team, and this was the blueprint for it.
First, no word on Kovacevic - we didn't get any sort of indication of severity or what actually happened. That seemed like it would be a death sentence: 5 D to ride out a relentless Carolina forward group. 2 are fresh off injuries (1 rushed), one pulled off the Anaheim scrap heap, one a sophomore in a crisis of confidence, and "one way less than 100%" (per Keefe). Well slap my ass and call me a pickle these guys were absolute warriors and the story of the game. Truly a next man up band of brothers type of performance. They were EXCELLENT at keeping them outside, ate pucks left and right, and were quick up ice with passes and chip outs. Wasn't pretty at times but they got the job done, just look at some of these numbers:
Dumoulin: 36:29 TOI, 4 Blocked Shots
Pesce: 32:25 TOI, 6 Blocked Shots
Hamilton: 31:16 TOI, 3 Blocked Shots
Siegs: 27:09 TOI, 3 Blocked Shots
Nemec: 22:39 TOI, 2 Blocked Shots
So much for easing Siegs in.
The shot blocking was next level, and was evident all night. the Canes are going to shoot from everywhere and keeping them to low danger/perimeter shots and getting in lanes is a major ingredient in the recipe to win. 33 Blocks in total across the team on 70 shot attempts, almost half of their shot attempts blocked. The shot attempt battle was the only fancy stat we lost the battle in, and I know people hate these but since the Canes lean so heavily into analytics I do want to point out we dominated them at their own game. The only period we were in a deficit at 5v5 in CF, xGF%, and Scoring Chances (SCF) was the 2nd period, and we held them off the scoresheet (via Natural Stat Trick):
1st - CF: 51.9% / SCF: 70.0% / xGF: 72.2%
2nd - CF: 22.7% / SCF, 27.3% / xGF: 46.1%
3rd - CF: 60% / SCF: 57.1% / xGF: 85.0%
1OT - CF: 66.7 / SCF: 77.8% / xGF: 85.0%
2OT - CF: 80% / SCF: 100% / xGF: 92.8%
TOTAL - CF: 49% / SCF: 55.8% / xGF: 64.5%
Guys, we dominated this game. I said this from the start, I didn't like the sit back and take it philosophy that we went into game 1 with, and that is two games we have out Canes'd the Canes. We are getting better, adapting, evolving.. They are not. To pull that Herb Brooks/Miracle quote out again: "You take their game and shove it back in their face." We didn't eek one out here and hold on for dear life, we fucking WON that game and dominated.
So how did we get to such a dominating performance? Another thing I had been begging for: leading with physicality. The Canes have no one intimidating. No one who's a big mean scary tough guy. Their scariest looking guy is a 40 year old toothless, headbutting zookeeper looking motherfucker. Their best forwards are generally small and finesse. We TOOK it to them from the puck drop we finished every hit, were eliminating everything that moved. Typically when you dominate possession numbers like above, you lose the hitting battle. Well now we have 52, 51 and 43 hits across three games. Don't tell me this team is small and weak and has no heart, they are pounding the shit out of the Canes and the fatigue that leads to is starting to show in them. I want to shout out Palat here - as much shit as we have given him all season he was a menace out there and had 4 hits and 3 blocked shots. Dowling, Bastian, and Cotter were a fantastic 4th line collecting 8 hits among them. Even Mercer who typically gets outmuscled was physical with 3 hits and a block.
Getting on the board first has proven incredibly important, and who else but the Captain. All the fucking losers who question his leadership can eat a bag of dicks - this guy does so goddamn much for this team. A beautiful outlet sequence form Palat to Timo, who floated a little sauce to Nico who gave a little accidental dangle to get us on the board. Playoff hockey is so fun, I really wish I wasn't 3 states away because the roof came off the Rock on that one.
We kept at it, and even though we gave some territory back in the 2nd we found a way to extend the lead early in the third. Bratt, also proving some haters and doubters wrong, absolutely cooked "best defensive defenseman in the league" Jacob Slavin 1 on 1, and got Andersen scrambling, and Mercer was strong on the puck for the finish. Gotta say, Mercer has stepped up of late and with some more muscle, he might be a keeper after all.
The main issue that has plagued us, and was supposed to be a strength going in, is our specials. We are getting destroyed in this series. Carolina with another 2 PP goals to tie it up, one Marky let squeeze through him and the other on a tired Delay of Game penalty and netfront scramble. Carolina only has 3 Even Strength goals this series, we absolutely have to clean up the PK.
Our powerplay is a goddamn disaster right now, zone entries are a mess and we are generating next to nothing in zone. Not sure if they galaxy brained this, but our PP1 personnel is all mixed up - Timo and Bratt find themselves flipped and it is NOT WORKING. Dougie isn't shooting, Noesen's hands have turned to stone and Nico has generally been a non factor. Credit to their PK, they are a high pressure unit and that has been an issue for us all season, but we need to make something happen here. Quite frankly this would've been a blowout if we convert on 1-2 of the 5 chances we got.
Now our sweet baby boy Simon. Man this kid has been slowly regaining confidence, and this was his best performance of his career at a time when it was needed the most. Aside from the game winner, he had fantastic gaps all night, showed poise with the puck, sealed off guys in the D zone, and had an active stick. While people have been killing him calling him a bust and while he has been a shell of himself, your favorite blogger has maintained his faith that he can work through it. The OT winner shows what he excels at and often flies under the radar - small deceptive moves and poise with the puck. He baits Ghost into thinking a dump is coming, pulls it past him and lets it go. Should Andersen have gotten that one? Who fucking cares, it went in and we are going home.
Marky was very good again: .926 sv. pct and 1.4 GSAx. Three straight strong starts. No 5v5 goals. Pretty good for a dusty 34 year old man, eh kiddos?
The feeling I have is pride. Proud of these guys for showing up. Proud of them for being warriors, proud of them for not collapsing after coughing up the lead. More please, we can do this gang, pressure is ALL on them. Back at it Sunday.
And we didn't even do anything IG worthy, how's that feel Stevarino?
LGD